Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident.